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Econometric Methodology

 

 
Service Industry Sales

Sources of Data

In order to estimate sales receipts for Service Industry establishments, Devonshire uses the following data sources:  the latest Census of Service Industries (part of the Economic Census conducted every five years by the U.S. Census Bureau), Establishment and Employment data from Devonshire's Premium Business Patterns file, Wages and Employment data by industry from the government's Employment and Wages database, national data from the latest Service Annual Survey conducted by the Census Bureau, and business point data from the dmPLUS National Record Summary Database.

Industry/Data Groups

Service Industries include the following major categories:

     Publishing Industries
     Motion Picture & Sound Recording Industries
     Broadcasting
     Internet Publishing & Broadcasting
     Telecommunications
     Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals & Data Processing Services
     Other Information Services
     Rental & Leasing Services
     Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
     Administrative & Support Services
     Waste Management & Remediation Services
     Educational Services
     Ambulatory Health Care Services
     Hospitals
     Nursing & Residential Care Facilities
     Social Assistance
     Performing Arts, Spectator Sports & Related Industries
     Museums, Historical Sites & Similar Institutions
     Amusement, Gambling & Recreation Industries
     Accommodations
     Repair & Maintenance
     Personal & Laundry Services
     Religious/Grantmaking/Civic/Professional & Similar Organizations

For each of these major categories, sales data is further classified into minor groups.

County Methodology

The Census of Service Industries is used as the benchmark for the Devonshire's Service Industry estimates.  This includes sales receipts for establishments that pay taxes as well as those which are tax-exempt.  As part of the benchmarking process, Devonshire develops estimates for any data withheld from publication in the Census Bureau's file.

Devonshire measures year-to-year changes in wages from the government's Employment and Wage file as well as changes in employment from Devonshire's Premium Business Patterns file.  This is done for each industry group within each county.  These changes are applied to the benchmark to estimate the current year's sales receipts.  At the national level, Devonshire uses the rate of change in each service industry reflected in the latest Service Annual Survey publication to develop controls for the estimate year.

ZIP Code Methodology

Devonshire uses the County Services data as input and estimates ZIP Code sales receipts using employment information from the Premium Business Patterns ZIP Code file.  Devonshire uses the share of each ZIP Code's employment (by NAICS code) to all ZIPs assigned to the county to distribute the county sales receipts to each ZIP Code.

Blockgroup/Census Tract Methodology

Devonshire uses business point data from the dmPLUS National Record Summary Database to disaggregate County-level and ZIP-level Service Industry Sales estimates.  Business point data from over 27 million unique business records is geocoded, summarized, and identified by NAICS classification.  Devonshire uses the ZIP and County Services data as input and estimates blockgroup and census tract sales receipts using employment information from the dmPLUS Summary Database.  Devonshire uses the share of each blockgroup's employment (by NAICS code) to all blockgroups assigned to the ZIP and county to distribute the sales receipts to each blockgroup.  Blockgroup estimates are then summarized to create census tract level estimates.

 

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