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Econometric Methodology

 

 
Retail Sales by Store Type

Sources of Data

In order to estimate Total Retail Sales and Retail Sales by Store Type, Devonshire uses the following data sources: the latest Census of Retail Trade, Sales Tax Data collected from each State Department of Revenue, Covered Employment and Wage Data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Devonshire's Business Summary File.  Devonshire also incorporates national retail sales information from the Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey and business point data from the dmPLUS National Record Summary Database.

Industry/Data Groups

Devonshire updates the following Major Store Groups at the 3-Digit NAICS level:

     441   Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
     442   Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
     443   Electronics & Appliance Stores
     444   Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers
     445   Food & Beverage Stores
     446   Health & Personal Care Stores
     447   Gas Stations
     448   Clothing & Accessories Stores
     451   Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
     452   General Merchandise Stores
     453   Miscellaneous Store Retailers
     454   Nonstore Retailers
     722   Foodservices & Drinking Places

For each of these major retail categories, sales data is further classified by 70 Minor Store Groups at the 4-Digit, 5-Digit, and 6-Digit NAICS levels.

County Methodology

The Census of Retail Trade is used as the benchmark for the Devonshire Retail Sales estimates.  As appropriate, the Retail Sales data is adjusted for annualized changes in wages, employment, and sales tax at the regional, state, and county levels for the annual updates.  Retail sales by wholesalers and service establishments are not included in these estimates.  Total Retail Sales reflects net sales (minus funds for returns and allowances) that measure the drawing power of local establishments.  A similar procedure is followed to estimate Retail Sales by Store Group for the 13 Major Store Groups at the county level.  The Monthly Retail Trade data is then used to further categorize these estimates into 80 Minor Store Groups.

ZIP Code Methodology

Devonshire uses its latest Premium Business Patterns ZIP Code file to disaggregate County-level Retail Sales estimates for all Major and Minor Store Types.  The process begins by first establishing the relationships between the number of employees in any particular ZIP and its corresponding county.  These relationships are obtained for each Retail Sales category.  Finally, the relationships are applied to County Retail Sales by Store Type.

Blockgroup/Census Tract Methodology

Devonshire uses business point data from the dmPLUS National Record Summary Database to disaggregate County-level and ZIP-level Retail Sales estimates for all Major and Minor Store Types.  Business point data from over 27 million unique business records is geocoded, summarized, and identified by NAICS classification.  The process continues by establishing the relationships between the number of employees in any particular blockgroup or census tract and its corresponding ZIP and county.  These relationships are obtained for each Retail Sales category.  Finally, the relationships are applied to ZIP and County Retail Sales by Store Type.

 

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